Consultation: Draft advice on the fourth emissions budget (2036–2040)

Discussion document:

• Read this document as pages on our website
• Download: Discussion document: Draft advice on the fourth emissions budget period [PDF – 7.01 MB]

Supporting material:

• Download: Technical Annex: Modelling and analysis [PDF – 1.2MB]
• Modelling and data are available on our website

Under section 5ZA of the Climate Change Response Act, every five years the Climate Change Commission must:

• review emissions budgets that are already set – we may recommend a budget be revised if there have been changes to the way emissions are measured or reported, or if significant changes have affected the considerations on which the emissions budget was originally based.
• recommend the maximum level of the next emissions budget

We advise the Minister of Climate Change on:

• The recommended maximum quantity of emissions in the next budget period, stating the amount by which emissions of each greenhouse gas should be reduced to meet the relevant emissions budget and the 2050 target.
• The rules that will apply to measure progress towards meeting the emissions budget and the 2050 target.
• How the emissions budget, and the 2050 target, may realistically be met, including by pricing and policy methods.
• The proportions of an emissions budget that are to be met by domestic emissions reductions and domestic removals alongside the appropriate limit on offshore mitigation that may be used to meet an emissions budget.
• Recommendations to revise the level of any notified emissions budgets due to methodological changes in the way emissions are measured and reported, or significant changes to the considerations on which the emissions budget was based.

It’s possible that different evidence will point in different directions. Our advice will include judgements on how to balance the evidence, and the impacts, related to the factors we are legally required to consider.

Specific matters that we must consider are set out in section 5ZC of the CCRA, and section 5M (where relevant).

Our analysis includes assessing options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Aotearoa New Zealand, including adoption of low emissions technology and behaviour change.

Though our analysis, we look to understand:

• the size of the emissions reductions possible
• the likely costs, benefits and wider impacts of each option, as well as potential barriers to its adoption.

We must also advise on the proportions of budgets that are met through emissions reductions and by domestic removals (such as removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by forests).

We consider the potential social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts of emissions budgets on New Zealanders, including how any impacts (positive or negative) may fall across regions and communities, and from generation to generation.

We must also consider the international context and actions by other parties to the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Read more background information on our website.

If you are emailing or posting your feedback, please download and complete a contact and consent form and include this with your submission: Consent form for offline submissions [.DOCX – 336 KB]

You can email us your submission at haveyoursay@climatecommission.govt.nz

You can send us your submission by post to the address below:

Consultation: 2024 Review of the 2050 target

Climate Change Commission

PO Box 24448, Wellington 6142