Request for input: Update to advice on the fourth emissions budget
Notable changes
In this updated advice we will consider if there have been any notable changes which should be factored into our recommendations on setting the level of the fourth emissions budget and revising earlier emissions budgets.
In the original advice we found that higher rates of forests planted over the previous four years than was expected when the first three emissions budgets were set, was a significant change that warranted changing emissions budgets.
The responses we receive to this question will inform our assessment of if we need to account for any major changes that we did not account for in the original advice.
What kind of changes might the Commission consider warrant changing the emissions budgets?
The Climate Change Response Act allows the Commission to recommend changes to existing budgets if one or more significant changes have affected the matters that must be considered when setting an emissions budget.
Those matters are set out in section 5ZC of the Climate Change Response Act (2002).
In our original 2024 advice the Commission developed a framework for considering which changes constituted significant changes and warranted revisions to the existing budgets. This included considering:
- The magnitude of the impact on emissions budgets from the change
- Whether the change is permanent or could change again in future
- The likelihood that the impact on budgets would be realised
- The reason for the change and whether it altered what is feasible in the budget period.