Request for input: Update to advice on the fourth emissions budget
Overview
Communities across Aotearoa New Zealand are already experiencing more frequent and severe climate impacts, including storms, rain, landslides, and sea-level rise. Adaptation is essential, but it will not be enough on its own. Limiting future climate risk depends on reducing global emissions, and Aotearoa New Zealand has a role to play in that collective effort – this is where emissions budgets come in. Emissions budgets set out how much the country needs to reduce emissions in five-year steps.
We are seeking your input into how we update our analysis on Aotearoa New Zealand’s fourth emissions budget (2036–2040), due by 31 March 2027. You can find our previous advice here.
In December 2025 the Government amended the Climate Change Response Act to:
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change the 2050 biogenic methane target from a 24–47% reduction to a 14–24% reduction.
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require the Commission to consider the potential implications for domestic food production.
Our update will reflect these changes.
From June until September we will be engaging with people and organisations to inform this update. The first step is a public opportunity to provide written evidence and insights, from 9 June to 19 July. Following this step, we will engage with people further to confirm points of evidence.
This page will be updated by 9 June when the request for input opens.
What are emissions budgets?
An emissions budget sets the maximum quantity of emissions of all greenhouse gases permitted during a particular five-year period. Emissions budgets set a pathway for Aotearoa New Zealand to meet its 2050 emissions reduction target as each budget is lower than the previous.
Every five years, the Commission produces independent expert advice on what the emissions budgets should be to help Aotearoa New Zealand meet its 2050 emissions reductions target. In 2024 we provided advice on setting the level of the fourth emissions budget (2036-2040) and recommended revising the emissions budgets already in place.
Why does this advice need to be updated?
The Government was originally due to respond to our advice and set the level of the fourth emissions budget by 31 December 2025. However, in December 2025 the Climate Change Response (2050 Target and Other Matters) Amendment Bill passed into law, requiring the Commission to update its advice on the fourth emissions budget by 31 March 2027, and the Government to respond and set the budget level by 31 December 2027.
The amendment changed the biogenic methane component of the 2050 target and added another matter that the Commission must consider when providing recommendations on emissions budgets: the implications or potential implications for domestic food production. These changes will be reflected in the updated advice.
What does the Commission consider when determining the budget levels it recommends?
The Act sets out a number of matters which the Commission must consider when it is determining the budget levels it recommends. The Minister must also consider these matters when setting an emissions budget. The full list can be found in section 5ZC of the Climate Change Response Act (2002).
The range of matters the Commission must consider is broad and covers:
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The opportunities for emissions reductions and removals and the risks and uncertainties associated with these
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Projections of emissions over the budget period
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Scientific advice and existing and anticipated technological developments
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The need for budgets that are ambitious but likely to be technically and economically achievable
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The likely impacts of meeting the emissions budget, including on adapting to climate change, and how these impacts are distributed across regions, communities and generation to generation
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Economic circumstances and impacts on Government finances
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The implications, or potential implications, of land-use change for communities
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The implications, or potential implications, for domestic food production
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Relevant international obligations and agreements, including response to climate change by other countries who are parties to the Paris Agreement or the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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