Request for input: Update to advice on the fourth emissions budget

The main changes in this updated advice will be around biogenic methane and how we consider food production, so it will help us to have people’s thoughts on those. 

The questions you will be asked about this are: 

1. What does the ambition change for the biogenic methane target mean for the appropriate level of the fourth emissions budget?
2. What are the implications of the new requirement to consider implications for domestic food production?
3. What are some other notable changes for the NZ economy and emissions since 2024?

Does domestic food production include food that Aotearoa New Zealand exports?

Domestic food production is not clearly defined in the Climate Change Response Act, but in our engagements we are considering food that we export. 

We’d like input from you on how we should approach this, alongside any evidence and insights you have on the links between domestic food production, emissions and exports. 

How will you model the relationship between emissions reductions and domestic food production?

We used two different models in our 2024 advice. One is Energy in NZ, showing how emissions reductions will flow through to the economy. The second is the C-plan equilibrium model, which shows how emissions reduction will impact on GDP.  

In the update to our advice, we’ll look to add the NZ Farm model which looks at impacts for farming and land use at a regional level and in more detail than other models. We are open to feedback on more generally what we should be considering.  

This refers to a sustained change or changes that are likely to materially or permanently affect the level of emissions reductions that are appropriate. In previous advice, an example of a notable change was that less trees were planted than had originally been forecasted.

We welcome your thoughts and evidence on what notable changes should be considered since our last advice in 2024. We will consider this when we update our modelling. We’ll also consider if the second budget (2026 - 2030) and third emissions budget (2031 – 2035) should be updated as a result.

Does the recent Middle East conflict meet the bar? 

The effect of the Middle East conflict on fossil fuel prices and supply may be considered. It’s not clear if the current disruption will have longer term effects on the trajectory for fossil fuels and renewables. We plan to use the latest Government projections as one input for our advice. 

Do emissions policy changes meet the bar? 

Although policies can gradually affect what emissions reductions are possible over time (such as research into new technology), we wouldn’t consider a policy change itself a notable change. 

Do developments in the Crown-Māori relationship meet the bar? 

Although the Commission is not itself part of the Crown, the Crown-Māori relationship is something we consider in all our advice. However, this consideration doesn’t have a direct, quantified link to the budget levels in our analysis, and it is not an area where we would try to judge if there had been a notable change since 2024.  

Do new technologies such as methane reducing technologies or genetic solutions meet the bar?  

New technologies can meet the threshold but in our previous advice we already accounted for methane reducing technologies, so this wouldn't be considered a notable change in our update.